Sunday, July 5, 2015

100 Billion: June Income and Balance Sheet, and Reflections at the Mid-Year Point

June was back in the green and would have been better save for a completely random gank.  So goes life in EVE.  I also eliminated at least one item out of our tech II production chain.  I don't have a systematic way of doing that yet, but significant work on EveKit is nearing a close so I should be able to divert efforts to building those types of tools.  Finally, as we're six months into the year, now is a good time to reflect back on how the 100 billion experiment is going so far.

June By The Numbers

Here's where we were at the end of May:

and here's where we stand after June:

The balance sheet is up about ISK 1B although equity is still down due to the drag from PLEX cost.  About half of the increase came from income from tech II sales, and the other half came from asset appreciation.  PLEX prices are still on the rise.  So we're still waiting for the predicted bottom cycle of PLEX pricing which usually occurs late in the summer.  There was a PLEX sale this last month which would normally cause prices to drop, but that didn't happen.  Also, many EVE bloggers have been talking about the recent low active logons count.  That would favor higher PLEX prices instead of lower (not enough liquidity on the buy side).

Here's the top 20 assets from end of May:

and here's the top 20 at the end of June:

There are three main things to note from the asset list for June:

  1. Toxic metal prices continue to be volatile, at least on a month to month basis.  I have no idea what's going on there.
  2. Ship skins have now made their appearance in the top 20 with the Dominix skin being very popular.  It's a limited issue skin and likely something to be re-issued for major EVE events (think: EVE Vegas or FanFest).  That suggests we should consider dumping it soon.
  3. The special issue clothing is still on the list but, unlike ship skins, are particular to FanFest 2015.  That suggests they won't be re-released any time soon (perhaps ever again), so I think we're a hold for now.

On the income side, we were nicely into the green although as usual not near enough to cover PLEX cost.  Here's where we stood for May:

and here's where we are at the end of June:

We had the strong sales we expect for being well into the regular production cycle of our tech II items.  We should have been about ISK 200M higher but for a random gank which you can see in the transaction list.  We sold our kill rights for the gank, and they were used.  That's the ISK 2 we made :)  Here are the top 20 transactions for May:

and for June:

The company Crane (blockade runner) was randomly ganked on the way to a pickup all in high sec space.  We got podded as well.  There was no cargo loss as we were empty at the time, but as blockade runners can't be scanned, our gankers had no way to know they wasted their time (and ships).  So this was mostly an annoyance that cost us about ISK 200M in replacement costs.

The other item of note is that I've decided to drop Adaptive Nano Plating out of tech II production.  The market for this item is flooded at the moment and the price has dropped out of the bottom.  I'll leave a sell order on the market to get through current stock, but I'll be excluding this item from the tech II blueprint copy list until prices improve.  As I mentioned above, I don't have great tools for doing this systematically yet, but I expect to have time to work on that soon.

That's it for the 100 Billion corp financial update, now let's reflect on the year so far.

Reflections at Mid Year

We're half way through the year and it's probably fair to say that we're just treading water with the 100 billion experiment so far.  From an equity perspective, we're actually losing money.  But let's gather all the numbers so far, then draw conclusions:

I've colored coded the months to show where we had positive income versus negative income.  This leaves out the change in asset valuation, which is also a potential source of income.  But the main take away is that we're almost dead even with where we were at the start of the year.  That's a lot of work for no real gain.  In fact, we're actually losing money if you throw in the cost of PLEX (not shown in table).

I'm dedicated to this experiment for at least a year.  So despite the lack of any real progress, I'm staying positive.  Which means it's time to look forward and think about what needs to change to show real progress.  Here's what I've got so far in no particular order:
  • The Market?  Being in the finance industry, I feel like I'm missing a huge opportunity here to do some station trading and make some income that way.  I haven't gone down this road yet because I want to do it systematically and don't yet have the tools to get that done.  That will definitely be a focus for the second half of the year.
  • Drop the losers already.  The call to remove Adaptive Nano Plating from production was a gut call based on prices I'm seeing and my rough accounting of production cost.  This needs to be done more systematically for all the production we're engaging in.  Two updates ago I presented a simple spreadsheet analyzing drone production.  I need to do the same thing for all tech II production to see where we're just not making the grade.  I suspect I'm missing a few more items I need to cut based on cost.
  • Blitz more missions.  This is more time consuming than other endeavors but it's a money maker both in terms of cash (usually at least ISM 100M a month) as well as loot and salvage (particularly on missions which return officer insignia).  The real cost in missions is time, which of course doesn't show up on the balance sheet at all.
  • Is Tech I Profitable?  This should come from better market analysis, but it would seem to reason that given the amount of PVP, there should be a decent market for Tech I ships.  Of course, the market may be heavily flooded here.

Getting a handle on losing tech II production is probably the highest priority, followed by more regular mission running.  There are regular stories of players making billions from dedicated mission running.  I doubt I can put that much time into it, but I can probably do more than I'm doing now.

In other news, the EveKit Wayback Machine is about to become reality which will free up some time as well.  I'm really excited about that change as it will make it much easier to analyze how the 100 billion corp is burning through assets used for production.

That's the update for this month.  See you after the Aegis update!

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